客户停电成本的框架和审查：电力公司的停电损失整合与分析调查报告

A Framework and Review of Customer Outage Costs: Integration and Analysis of

Electric Utility Outage Cost Surveys电力利用的断供期 成本调查

Prepared for 准备 Imre Gyuk

Energy Storage Program 能量存储程序

Office of Electric Transmission and Distribution U.S. Department of Energy by

Leora Lawton, Michael Sullivan, Kent Van Liere, and Aaron Katz Population Research Systems, LLC and

Joseph Eto

Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory University of California Berkeley, CA 94720

Environmental Energy环境能源

Technologies Division November 2003

http://eetd.lbl.gov/ea/EMS/EMS_pubs.html

The work described in this report wasfunded by the Office of Electric Transmission and Distribution, Energy Storage Programof the U.S. Department of Energy under Contract No. DE-AC03-76SF00098.

LBNL-54365

A Framework and Review of Customer Outage Costs: Integration and Analysis of

Electric Utility Outage Cost Surveys Prepared for Imre Gyuk

Energy Storage Program

Office of Electric Transmission and Distribution U.S. Department of Energy by

Leora Lawton, Michael Sullivan, Kent Van Liere, and Aaron Katz Population Research Systems, LLC and

Joseph Eto

Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory November, 2003

The work described in this report was funded by the Office of Electric Transmission and Distribution, Energy Storage Program of the U.S. Department of Energy under Contract No. DE-AC03-76SF00098.

Abstract

摘要

A clear understanding of the monetary货币的 value thatcustomers place on reliability and the factors

that give rise to higher and lower values is an essential tool in determining investment in the grid. The recent National Transmission Grid Study recognizesthe need for this information as one of growing importance for both public and private decision makers. In response, the U.S.

Department of Energy has undertaken this study, as a first step toward addressing the current absence of consistent data neededto support better estimates of the economic value of electricity

reliability. Twenty-four studies, conducted by eight electric utilities between 1989 and 2002 representing residential and commercial/industrial (small, medium and large) customer groups, were chosen for analysis. The studies cover virtually all of the Southeast, most of the western United States, including California, rural Washington and Oregon, and the Midwest south and east of Chicago. All variables were standardized to a consistent metric and dollar amounts were adjusted to the 2002 CPI. The data were then incorporated into a meta-database in which each outage scenario (e.g., the loss of electric service for one hour on a weekday summer afternoon) is treated as an independent case or recordboth to permit comparisons between outage characteristics and to increase the statistical power of analysis results.

Unadjusted average outage costs and Tobit modelsthat estimate customer damage functions are presented. The customer damage functions express customer outage costs for a given outage scenario and customer class as a function of location, time of day, consumption, and business type. One can use the damage functions to calculate outage costs for specific customer types. For example, using the customer damage functions, the cost experienced by an “average”

customer resulting from a 1 hour summer afternoon outage is estimated to be approximately $3 for a residential customer, $1,200 for small-medium commercial and industrial customer, and $82,000 for large commercial and industrial customer. Future work to improve the quality and coverage of information on the value of electricity reliability to customers is described

Acknowledgement

The authors thank Imre Gyuk, DOE Energy Storage Program, and Tina Kaarsberg *

for their

support of this project. We also thank the utilities that agreed to provide the data used in the report; however, by agreement, we do not identify these firms individually. We also

acknowledge the assistance of Ram Adapa, EPRI, inobtaining one of the data sets. A draft of this report benefited greatly from expert reviews provided by Robin Walther, George Gross, Ali Chowdhury, Reed Edwards, Diane Barney and members of the NARUC Electricity Reliability Staff Subcommittee, Harry Stoller, Michael Sheehan, Frank Harris, and Bernard Neenan. All errors and omissions remain the responsibility of the authors.

Ms. Kaarsberg is currently staff to the Energy Subcommittee of the Committee on Science, U.S. House of Representatives.